The youth vote in the European elections: Shifts in a changing political landscape
The outcome of the European elections of June 2024 resulted in significant changes in Greece’s political landscape, just one year after the parliamentary elections of June 2023. Nea Dimokratia saw a big drop in its electoral strength (-12.25%), SYRIZA entered a spiral that has led to the removal of Stefanos Kasselakis from the position of party chief and to a process of appointing a new party leader, PASOK was driven to internal elections that resulted in the reaffirmation of the party members’ trust in Nikos Androulakis, while the far- right’s appeal continues to grow.
In the context of Eteron’s systematic engagement with the youth, and Gen Z in particular, in this paper we shall focus on the way young people voted in the recent European elections. According to recent papers, age is proving to be an increasingly important predictor of voting behaviour. At the same time, in a recent survey by the German Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 60% of young people aged 29 and under, who are living in Greece, state that they feel that their interests are not being adequately represented in the Greek political arena. This indicates a lack of representation of young voters.
Before we start analysing the youth vote, it is worth recalling the results of the European elections. Nea Dimokratia (New Democracy) emerged as the winning party with 28.31% of the vote. In second place, albeit with losses, was SYRIZA-Proodeftiki Symachia (SYRIZA-Progressive Alliance), which managed to get 14.92%. PASOK-KINAL (PASOK-Movement for Change) came third with 12.79%. Elliniki Lysi (Greek Solution) came fourth with 9.3%, just ahead of the KKE (the Greek Communist Party) that received 9.25%. Then, there were Niki (Victory) that got 4.37%, and Plefsi Eleftherias (Course of Freedom) with 3.4%. The last party to secure representation in the European Parliament, even if only by a narrow margin, is Foni Logikis (Voice of Reason) with 3.04%. Two left-wing parties, MeRA 25 – Anatreptiki Ekologiki Aristera (MeRA25-Subversive Ecological Left) and Nea Aristera (New Left), failed to secure a seat in the European Parliament by approximately 0.5-0.6%.
Below we will document the electoral trends that prevail amongst young voters and assess whether a pattern of electoral behaviour can be identified that differs significantly from the final result of the recent European elections. The analysis focuses on three voter categories: a) the 17-24 age group, b) the students, and c) the 25-34 age group. The data were drawn from the Results Report of the joint exit poll (Metron Analysis, Alco, Marc, MRB, GPO). The exit poll was conducted on a representative sample of 5,672 voters, with face-to-face interviews outside 90 polling stations nationwide. The first noteworthy finding is the fact that in the European elections Nea Dimokratia lost the lead it had in all the aforementioned categories in the previous parliamentary elections. More specifically, the ruling party received 16.1% of the votes in the 17-24 age group (from 28.8% in June 2023), 15.8% in the 25-34 age group (from 27.6% in June 2023) and only 13% (from 29.4%) in the student population. Compared to the parliamentary elections of June 2023, the drop in Nea Dimoratia’s share in these three categories is equivalent or even greater than its overall loss in electoral strength recorded between the June 2023 parliamentary elections and the June 2024 European elections. A rather telling fact is that the drop in Nea Dimokratia’s share of the student population is over 16 percentage points, with the party losing more than half of its electoral power in this group.
SYRIZA-Progressive Alliance managed to prevail in these three groups. More specifically, SYRIZA received 18.5% in the 17-24 age group (from 19.2% in June 2023), 18% in the 25-34 age group (from 20.6% in June 2023) and 17.4% (from 17.9% in June 2023) amongst students. One notices that the above percentages are still slightly lower than those that the party received in the 2023 general election. Therefore, the fact that SYRIZA returned to the top position in the three selected voter categories is mostly due to the large decrease of Nea Dimokratia’s electoral appeal.
PASOK- KINAL slightly improved its results amongst the two younger categories, but its impact recorded a further decline between voters aged 25-34 years old. 11.3% of young people aged 17-24 and 11.6% of the students voted for it (from 10% and 8% respectively in June 2023). However, the appeal of PASOK-KINAL amongst the Millennials was limited to single digits, as the party gained only 7.8% of the vote (from 9.9% in June 2023). The “original” crisis generation seems to still harbour a more cautious stance towards PASOK-KINAL. It is no coincidence that in this age group the party recorded its lowest electoral performance in the European elections.
Elliniki Lysi significantly improved its ratings in all three youth voter categories. Specifically, the party gained 6.2% amongst 17-24 year olds (from 2.1% in June 2023), 6.2% of the student vote (from 1.1% in June 2023) and 9.8% (from 6% in June 2023) amongst 25-34 year olds.
The KKE has a steady increase in its percentages in the last few elections, with a solid and growing popularity amongst the youth. This positive trend seems to have been interrupted in the European elections when it comes to Gen Z and student voters. The percentages in these two categories showed a slight decline: 7.5% among 17-24 year olds (from 8.2% in June 2023) and 8.8% (from 9.6% in June 2023) amongst students. On the other hand, the KKE received its highest percentage amongst Millennials, namely 11.6% (from 9.1% in June 2023).
Niki saw an increase in its electoral rates amongst young people. More specifically, the party received 5.1% in the 17-24 age group (from 2.7% in June 2023), 4.9% in the 25-34 age group (from 3.3% in June 2023) and 6.2% (from 3.4% in June 2023) amongst students.
In the European elections, Plefsi Eleftherias improved its figures amongst the youth even more, especially amongst Zoomers. 9.8% of the 17-24 year-old voters opted for Plefsi Eleftherias (6.8% in June 2023), while a similar preference was recorded amongst students, reaching 9.6% (from 7.4% in June 2023). Yet the party’s electoral strength was limited to 4.5% amongst 25-34 year-old voters (from 4.1% in June 2023).
The last party to secure representation in the European Parliament is Foni Logikis. The party had received a mere 0.43% in the June 2023 parliamentary elections but that percentage increased and reached 3.04% in the European elections. Although there is no data available in order to conduct comparisons, Foni Logikis scores highly amongst young voter groups. In fact, its highest percentage can be traced to people belonging to Gen Z, with voters aged 17-24 giving the party a 5.4% share of their vote. The party’s results in the other two categories are slightly worse with 4.5% amongst students and 4% in the 25-34 age group.
The increase in the electoral numbers of Elliniki Lysi and Niki in the three youth voter categories and the entry of Foni Logikis, led by 33-year-old Aphrodite Latinopoulou, into the European Parliament, suggest that there is a growing trend of far-right electoral behaviour amongst young people. It is also indicative that Patriotes (Patriots), a party that received only 1.41% in the European elections, scored its highest rates amongst Gen Z and Millennials, registering 2.4% amongst 17-24 year olds and 2.8% amongst 25-34 year olds. The issue of why the youth vote for the far right needs to be researched beyond stereotypical approaches.
Finally, as mentioned earlier on, two left-wing parties came close to reaching the 3% threshold, but ultimately failed to secure representation in the European Parliament. However, MeRA 25 and Nea Aristera have a rather different impact amongst young voters. MeRA 25 still seems to represent a significant percentage of the youth, and received 5.7% in the 17-24 age group (from 6.6% in June 2023), 8.8% in the 25-34 age group (from 5.8% in June 2023) and 8.2% (from 8.9% in June 2023) amongst students. On the other hand, Nea Aristera recorded exceptionally low percentages in all three youth voter categories: 1.7% amongst young people aged 17-24, 1.7% in the student population and 1.9% amongst 25-34 year olds. Therefore, the assumption that left-wing parties usually have a greater appeal amongst young people is not confirmed in the case of Nea Aristera, which received its largest share in the 55+ age group (2.5% in the 35-54 age group and 2.6% in the 55+ age group). This is a crucial element for the future dynamics of this particular party.
Lastly, we will examine the divergence between the youth vote and the political parties’ national average percentages. A significant such divergence indicates a different pattern of voting behaviour. A first observation that can be drawn is that the youth vote is more fragmented than that of the general population, as no party reaches the 20% threshold. Moreover, both Gen Z voters and the Millennials cause significant shifts in the political parties’ electoral strength. Nea Dimokratia, PASOK-KINAL and Nea Aristera all register percentages that are below their national averages in all three youth voter categories. On the other hand, SYRIZA, Niki, Plefsi Eleftherias, Foni Logikis and MeRA25 record percentages above their national averages in all three groups. In the case of Elliniki Lysi and the KKE, the situation is rather mixed, as both parties received percentages above their national averages but only in the 25-34 age group.
As mentioned earlier, in all three of the youth voter categories that were analysed, SYRIZA received the highest rates. Gen Z and students place Plefsi Eleftherias as the fourth strongest political force. All three youth voter categories wanted MeRA25 to enter the European Parliament. Millennials demonstrate the most differentiated voting behaviour pattern out of the three groups. In the 25-34 age group, one observes the most notable changes in the political parties’ ranking order, with the KKE emerging as the third most popular choice. PASOK’s low appeal in this age group brings it to just sixth place, even below MeRA25.
Today, Greece’s political landscape is once more in a realignment process. According to recent polls, the government is still caught up in the cycle of political and electoral attrition triggered by the latest European elections. On the side of the so-called progressive forces, there are ongoing changes and processes that could potentially lead to a shift in the existing power balance. The abstention and the rise of the far-right constitute crucial challenges for the country’s political system and ultimately even for democratic politics. In such a context, it is extremely important to look into young people’s electoral behaviour and political attitudes, as well as the alternative forms of political action and participation that they may adopt.
